Slowing China trend growth means better opportunities elsewhere – BlackRock Investment Institute

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LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) – Slowing trend growth in China means there are better investment opportunities in emerging markets outside the world’s number two economy, senior executives at BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said on Wednesday.

Alex Brazier, deputy head of the BII – the research and analysis arm of the world’s largest asset manager – said during its Outlook 2024 briefing that the loss of momentum in China’s economic growth had prompted a more pessimistic view.

“5% this year in the context of a reopening of the economy, is not particularly strong,” Brazier said during the briefing.

“But more importantly for us is the trend growth outlook beyond that,” said Brazier.

Demographic change and slowing productivity growth had doused trend growth from once 10% to the current 5%, and it was to stand at roughly 3% by the end of the decade.

BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist Wei Li said there had been some reaction in response to the support measures that have been coming through, but that “really needs to be contextualised in the slowing longer-term growth trend as well as the real estate sector overhang”.

China’s government advisers are expected to call for more stimulus at the annual agenda-setting ‘Central Economic Work Conference’ due to be held in the next week or two.

“In risk-adjusted terms, investing in China has become less attractive, which is why we downgraded it earlier in the year. There are better options outside China,” said Wei Li.

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Edmund Shing, PhD

Global Chief Investment Officer
BNP Paribas Wealth Management

Edmund has over 29 years of experience in financial markets in a wide variety of positions, ranging from proprietary trading to portfolio manager in a number of financial institutions in London and Paris.  He previously held the role of Global Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy at BNP Paribas in London from 2015 to 2020, and has been Chief Investment Officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management since November 2020.

Edmund is responsible for piloting our investment strategy and will continues to rollout out recommendations and themes with actionable advice that brings our expertise to our clients and support to our client-facing teams.  In this time of change, his expertise in following and anticipating markets is a true value added for both our customers and those at Wealth Management who serve them.

Edmund has a PhD in Cognitive and Computing Science from the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, and has done advanced studies in Knowledge-Based Systems and in Experimental Psychology.  He is an EFFAS-certified financial analyst. He has also authored the book “The Idle Investor” published by Harriman House in 2015, proposing 3 simple investment strategies that take only a few minutes to execute per month.

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