LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) – Slowing trend growth in China means there are better investment opportunities in emerging markets outside the world’s number two economy, senior executives at BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said on Wednesday.
Alex Brazier, deputy head of the BII – the research and analysis arm of the world’s largest asset manager – said during its Outlook 2024 briefing that the loss of momentum in China’s economic growth had prompted a more pessimistic view.
“5% this year in the context of a reopening of the economy, is not particularly strong,” Brazier said during the briefing.
“But more importantly for us is the trend growth outlook beyond that,” said Brazier.
Demographic change and slowing productivity growth had doused trend growth from once 10% to the current 5%, and it was to stand at roughly 3% by the end of the decade.
BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist Wei Li said there had been some reaction in response to the support measures that have been coming through, but that “really needs to be contextualised in the slowing longer-term growth trend as well as the real estate sector overhang”.
China’s government advisers are expected to call for more stimulus at the annual agenda-setting ‘Central Economic Work Conference’ due to be held in the next week or two.
“In risk-adjusted terms, investing in China has become less attractive, which is why we downgraded it earlier in the year. There are better options outside China,” said Wei Li.